| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.02.004 |
| Discounting, catastrophic risks management and vulnerability modeling. | |
| Ermoliev Y; Ermolieva T; Fischer G; Makowski M; Nilsson S; Obersteiner M | |
| 发表日期 | 2008 |
| 出处 | Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 79 (4): 917-924 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Traditional discounting dramatically affects the outcome of catastrophic risk management and spatio-temporal vulnerability modeling. The misperception of discount rates produces inadequate evaluations of risk management strategies, which may provoke catastrophes and significantly contribute to the increasing vulnerability of our society. This paper analyses the implication of potential catastrophic events on the choice of discounting. In particular, it shows the necessity of using proposed equivalent undiscounted stopping time criterion and Monte Carlo based stochastic optimization procedures. |
| 主题 | Forestry (FOR) ; Integrated Modeling Environment (IME) ; Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC) |
| 关键词 | Catastrophic risks stopping time vulnerability modeling discounting adaptive Monte Carlo, stochastic optimization |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8620/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128892 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ermoliev Y,Ermolieva T,Fischer G,et al. Discounting, catastrophic risks management and vulnerability modeling.. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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