| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2009GL039642 |
| Insufficient forcing uncertainty underestimates the risk of high climate sensitivity. | |
| Tanaka K; Raddatz T; O'Neill BC; Reick CH | |
| 发表日期 | 2009 |
| 出处 | Geophysical Research Letters 36: L16709 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a fundamental problem for projections of the future climate. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is defined as the asymptotic response of global-mean surface air temperature to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from the preindustrial level (~280 ppm). In spite of various efforts to estimate its value, climate sensitivity is still not well constrained. Here we show that the probability of high climate sensitivity is higher than previously thought because uncertainty in historical radiative forcing has not been sufficiently considered. The greater the uncertainty that is considered for radiative forcing, the more difficult it is to rule out high climate sensitivity, although low climate sensitivity (<2 degrees Celsius) remains unlikely. We call for further research on how best to represent forcing uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Population and Climate Change (PCC) ; Postdoctoral Scholars (PDS) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8791/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128937 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tanaka K,Raddatz T,O'Neill BC,et al. Insufficient forcing uncertainty underestimates the risk of high climate sensitivity.. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
