| 来源类型 | Article
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| 规范类型 | 其他
|
| DOI | 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.07.001
|
| Implications of delayed participation and technology failure for the feasibility, costs, and likelihood of staying below temperature targets -- Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for the 21st century. |
| Krey V; Riahi K
|
| 发表日期 | 2009
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| 出处 | Energy Economics 31 (2): S94-S106
|
| 出版年 | 2009
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | The feasibility of limiting greenhouse gas concentrations and associated global mean temperature increase to 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels has recently attracted considerable scientific and policy attention. Whether or not such low targets can be achieved in the long-term depends on a number of assumptions about, for instance, technological change and the willingness of countries to immediately join a post-Kyoto agreement to limit anthropogenic climate change. As part of the EMF22 international scenarios study, our paper contributes to the ongoing discussion by conducting a scenario analysis in order to examine the influence of these assumptions on the feasibility of a set of radiative forcing targets. We distinguish between "first-best-scenarios" with full participation, and "second-best-scenarios" with delayed participation of Brazil, China, India, and Russia in 2030 and the rest of Non-Annex I countries after 2050. In addition, we explored the robustness of our "first-best" scenario results by varying the assumptions with regard to technological availability of key technology clusters. Accounting for the deep uncertainties associated with future global mean temperature change, we conduct a probabilistic assessment and explore the scenario's likelihood for staying below a range of different temperature thresholds. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE)
; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
|
| 关键词 | Emissions scenarios
Integrated assessment model
Climate change
Technology
Delayed participation
Probabilistic temperature change
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8844/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128972
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Krey V,Riahi K. Implications of delayed participation and technology failure for the feasibility, costs, and likelihood of staying below temperature targets -- Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for the 21st century.. 2009.
|
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