| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.0910253107 |
| Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years. | |
| Patt A; Tadross M; Nussbaumer P; Asante K; Metzger M; Rafael J; Goujon A; Brundrit G | |
| 发表日期 | 2010 |
| 出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (4): 1333-1337 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambiue, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio- economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assitance to finance adaptation. |
| 主题 | Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI) ; World Population (POP) ; Risk and Vulnerability (RAV) |
| 关键词 | Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Development Natural disasters Natural hazards |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9276/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129046 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Patt A,Tadross M,Nussbaumer P,et al. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Estimating%20least-d（461KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
