| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.0903797106 |
| Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options. | |
| O'Neill BC; Riahi K; Keppo I | |
| 发表日期 | 2010 |
| 出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (3): 1011-1016 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Midcentury targets have been proposed as a guide to climate change policy that can link long-term goals to shorter-term actions. However no explicit mitigation analyses have been carried out of the relationship between midcentury conditions and longer-term outcomes. Here we use an integrated assessment modeling framework with a detailed representation of the energy sector to examine the dependence of climate change outcomes in 2100 on emissions levels, atmospheric concentrations, and technology characteristics in 2050. We find that midcentury conditions are crucial determinants of longer-term climate outcomes, and we identify feasibility thresholds describing conditions that must be met by midcentury to keep particular long-term options open. For example, to preserve the technical feasibility of a 50% likelihood of keeping global average temperature at <2 degrees C above preindustrial in 2100, global emissions must be reduced by about 20% below 2000 levels by 2050. Results are sensitive to several assumptions, including the nature of future socio-economic development. In a scenario with high demand for energy and land, being below 2 degrees C with 50% likelihood requires a 50% reduction in emissions below 2000 levels by 2050, which is only barely feasible with known technologies in that scenario. Results suggest that a greater focus on midcentury targets could facilitate the development of policies that preserve potentially desirable long-term options. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Population and Climate Change (PCC) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| 关键词 | climate change integrated assessment emission target mitigation |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9285/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129050 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O'Neill BC,Riahi K,Keppo I. Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options.. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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