全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Misleading policy messages derived from the period TFR: Should we stop using it?

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.4232/10.CPoS-2010-15en
	Misleading policy messages derived from the period TFR: Should we stop using it?
	Sobotka T; Lutz W
发表日期	2011
出处	Zeitschrift fuer Bevoelkerungswissenschaft - Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) 35 (3): 637-664
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	Discussions about fertility in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR). We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretation of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from contemporary Europe. These illustrations show that the TFR (a) inflates the presumed gap between fertility intentions and realised fertility, (b) erroneously suggests a significant fertility increase in many countries of Europe after the year 2000, (c) often exaggerates the level of immigrants fertility and (d) frequently suggests that family-related policies which led to shorter birth spacing in fact brought an upward swing in fertility level. There seems to be no policy-relevant question for which the period TFR would be the indicator of choice to be preferred over other existing measures.
主题	World Population (POP)
关键词	Fertility measurement Total fertility Policies Fertility intentions Fertility timing Tempo effect
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9556/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129190
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sobotka T,Lutz W. Misleading policy messages derived from the period TFR: Should we stop using it?. 2011.

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54-199-3-PB.pdf（296KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览