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来源类型 | Article |
规范类型 | 其他 |
DOI | 10.5194/acp-11-3119-2011 |
Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020. | |
Xing J; Wang SX; Chatani S; Zhang CY; Wei W; Hao JM; Klimont Z; Cofala J | |
发表日期 | 2011 |
出处 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 (7): 3119-3136 |
出版年 | 2011 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future. Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0] scenario, the emission of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 will increase by 17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM10 emissions will be reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2], sustainable energy polices will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current control policies will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emission by 2.9 Tg, 1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg, respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO2 and PM10 emissions will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NOx and VOC emissions will increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Under RE[0] emissions, compared to 2005, the surface concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 28%, 41%, 8%, 8%, 19% and 25%, respectively, over east China. Under the PC[2] emission scenario, the surface concentrations of SO2, M2.5, total sulfur depositions will decrease by 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively, and the surface concentrations of NO2, nitrate, hourly maximum ozone in summer, total nitrogen depositions will be kept as 2005 level, over east China. The individual impacts of SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC and primary PM emission changes on ozone and PM.5 concentrations have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NOx emission control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and PM2.5 reduction benefits. NH3 emission controls should also be considered in order to reduce both nitrate concentration and total nitrogen deposition in the future. |
主题 | Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG) ; Air Quality & ; Greenhouse Gases (AIR) |
关键词 | Air quality Anthropogenic source Atmospheric pollution Concentration (composition) Emission control Energy efficiency Energy policy Energy use Environmental legislation Nitrate Nitrogen oxides Ozone Particulate matter Sulfur dioxide Volatile organic compound |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9519/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129193 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xing J,Wang SX,Chatani S,et al. Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020.. 2011. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
acp-11-3119-2011.pdf(4255KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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