Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Article |
规范类型 | 其他 |
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-011-0323-2 |
Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the "climate trap": A letter. | |
Tanaka K; Raddatz T | |
发表日期 | 2011 |
出处 | Climatic Change 109 (3): 815-825 |
出版年 | 2011 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are dominant uncertain properties of the global climate system. Their estimates based on the inverse approach are interdependent as historical temperature records constrain possible combinations. Nevertheless, many literature projections of future climate are based on the probability density of climate sensitivity and an independent aerosol forcing without considering the interdependency of such estimates. Here we investigate how large such parameter interdependency affects the range of future warming in two distinct settings: one following the A1B emission scenario till the year 2100 and the other assuming a shutdown of all greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions in the year 2020. We demonstrate that the range of projected warming decreases in the former case, but considerably broadens in the latter case, if the correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing is taken into account. Our conceptual study suggests that, unless the interdependency between the climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing estimates is properly considered, one could underestimate a risk involving the "climate trap", an unpalatable situation with a high climate sensitivity in which a very drastic mitigation may counter-intuitively accelerate the warming by unmasking the hidden warming due to aerosols. |
主题 | Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG) ; Population and Climate Change (PCC) ; Postdoctoral Scholars (PDS) ; Air Quality & ; Greenhouse Gases (AIR) |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9504/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129229 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tanaka K,Raddatz T. Correlation between climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing and its implication for the "climate trap": A letter.. 2011. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Tanaka K]的文章 |
[Raddatz T]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Tanaka K]的文章 |
[Raddatz T]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Tanaka K]的文章 |
[Raddatz T]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。