全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): A dynamic CVaR-portfolio approach using real options: An application to energy investments.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1002/etep.429
	A dynamic CVaR-portfolio approach using real options: An application to energy investments.
	Szolgayova J; Fuss S; Khabarov N; Obersteiner M
发表日期	2011
出处	European Transactions on Electrical Power 21 (6): 1825-1841
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	Even though portfolio theory has increasingly been applied to analyze large-scale investments under uncertainty-and especially so in the electricity sector - most analysis so far has been based on the static mean-variance approach. Such an approach has two shortcomings: on the one hand, it fails to take into account irreversibility in the form of high sunk costs and the associated implications for optimal dynamic behavior. On the other hand, variance is not always the ideal risk measure, given that return or cost distributions are not necessarily normal. In fact, if large, potential losses are involved, it makes more sense to adopt a risk measure that can also take into account fat tails. In this paper, we generate these distributions arising from the investment behavior optimized in a real options model, thus accounting for uncertainty and irreversibility at the plant level, and use them in a dynamic portfolio model, where the conditional value- at-risk (CVaR) is the risk measure. More specifically, we look at the dynamics of the (CVaR-) optimal technology mix over a future time period conditional on the initial distribution of technologies, such that given energy demand is met. The application to investment in the electricity sector with uncertain climate change policy shows that this approach is not only useful from the aggregate investment point- of-view but also for the purpose of evaluating the effects of policy on investment patterns and the resulting energy mix.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Forestry (FOR)
关键词	Portfolio optimization CVaR Climate change policy Uncertainty Real options Electricity investments
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9512/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129236
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Szolgayova J,Fuss S,Khabarov N,et al. A dynamic CVaR-portfolio approach using real options: An application to energy investments.. 2011.