| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1002/for.1171 |
| The role of age-structured education data for economic growth forecasts. | |
| Crespo Cuaresma J; Mishra T | |
| 发表日期 | 2011 |
| 出处 | Journal of Forecasting 30 (2): 249-267 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross-country data of 65 countries over six 5-year periods (1970-2000) and consider specifications chosen by model election criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in-sample and out-of-sample goodness of fit and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts systematically. In particular, the results are very promising for improving economic growth predictions in developing countries. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | Economic growth Education data Forecasting Adaptive regression Bayesian model averaging |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9636/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129345 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Crespo Cuaresma J,Mishra T. The role of age-structured education data for economic growth forecasts.. 2011. |
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