| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1210722109 |
| Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities. | |
| Klimek P; Yegorov Y; Hanel R; Thurner S | |
| 发表日期 | 2012 |
| 出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (41): 16469-16473 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, and that each citizen's vote should count equally. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their references. The large number of samples implies statistical consequences for the polling results, which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data representation, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis substantially exceeding the kurtosis of normal elections, depending on the level of data aggregation. As an example, we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are, indeed, well-explained by systematic ballot stuffing. We develop a parametric model quantifying the extent to which fraudulent mechanisms are present. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces robust outcomes with respect to the resolution of the data and therefore, allows for cross-country comparisons. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) |
| 关键词 | Democratic decision making Electoral district data Statistical model Voter turnout |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9865/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129406 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klimek P,Yegorov Y,Hanel R,et al. Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities.. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Statistical%20detect（782KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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