| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1 |
| Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts. | |
| Kvale K; Zickfeld K; Bruckner T; Meissner KJ; Tanaka K; Weaver AJ | |
| 发表日期 | 2012 |
| 出处 | Weather, Climate, and Society 4 (3): 212-229 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the .tolerable windows approach. is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2 and 0.2 degrees C per decade relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities >3 degrees C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities >2.5 degrees C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1m and 5cm per decade) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed. |
| 主题 | General Research (GEN) ; Population and Climate Change (PCC) |
| 关键词 | Anthropogenic effects Carbon dioxide Climate change |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129412 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kvale K,Zickfeld K,Bruckner T,et al. Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts.. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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