| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1080/00324728.2011.628047 |
| American political affiliation, 2003-43: A cohort component projection. | |
| Kaufmann E; Goujon A; Skirbekk V | |
| 发表日期 | 2012 |
| 出处 | Population Studies 66 (1): 53-67 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The recent rise in identification with American political parties has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party support. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces that will produce a natural advantage for the Democrats in the future, while conservative writers highlight the importance of high fertility amongst Republicans in securing growth. These opinions are not based on demographic analysis. We addressed this omission by undertaking the first ever cohort component projection (up to 2043) of populations by American party allegiance, based on survey and census data. On current trends, we predict that American partisanship will change much less than the nation's ethnic composition because the parties are similar in age structure. Nevertheless, our projections suggest that the Democrats will gain 2-3 per cent more support than the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, although the higher fertility of Republicans may eventually offset that advantage. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | Political demography Partisanship American politics Democrats Republicans Political attitudes Population projections Multistate projections Fertility Immigration Cohort effect |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10000/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129416 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kaufmann E,Goujon A,Skirbekk V. American political affiliation, 2003-43: A cohort component projection.. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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