全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1038/nclimate1546
	Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change.
	van Vliet MTH; Yearsley JR; Ludwig F; Voegele S; Lettenmaier DP; Kabat P
发表日期	2012
出处	Nature Climate Change 2 (9): 676-681
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure future energy security.
主题	Directorate (DIR)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9947/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129537
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Vliet MTH,Yearsley JR,Ludwig F,et al. Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change.. 2012.