| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.39 |
| Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility. | |
| Basten S; Lutz W; Scherbov S | |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 出处 | Demographic Research 28 (39): 1145-1166 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | BACKGROUND: Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion, if mortality continues to decline. Furthermore, sizeable human populations exist when the "voluntary chosen" ideal family size is heavily concentrated around one child per woman with TFRs as low as 0.6-0.8. However, the UN population projections to 2300 use a much narrower band of possible future TFRs. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | China Fertility Hong Kong Projections |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10438/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129581 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Basten S,Lutz W,Scherbov S. Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility.. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 28-39.pdf（215KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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