| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-35 |
| South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures. | |
| Dube S; Scholes RJ; Nelson GC; Mason-D'Croz D | |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 出处 | Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal : 2013-35 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. Vulnerability to food insecurity increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market- related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production in South Africa, decrease climate sensitivity and access to international markets are highlighted. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| 关键词 | Climate change Crop production Scenarios Food security Futures Modeling |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10327/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129599 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dube S,Scholes RJ,Nelson GC,et al. South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures.. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Economics_2013-35.pd（3138KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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