全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s10584-013-0964-4
	The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development.
	Calvin K; Pachauri S; De Cian E; Mouratiadou I
发表日期	2013
出处	Climatic Change 136 (1): 109-125
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa's future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5% and 20% of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4% and 10% of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.
主题	Energy (ENE)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10281/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129644
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Calvin K,Pachauri S,De Cian E,et al. The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development.. 2013.