全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.008
	A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe.
	Acosta L; Klein RJT; Reidsma P; Metzger MJ; Rounsevell MDA; Leemans R; Schroeter D
发表日期	2013
出处	Global Environmental Change 23 (5): 1211-1224
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity, which can be combined with impact models to support quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptive capacity model is based on twelve socio-economic indicators, each of which is projected into the future using four global environmental change scenarios, and then aggregated into an adaptive capacity index in a stepwise approach using fuzzy set theory. The adaptive capacity model provides insight into broad patterns of adaptive capacity across Europe, the relative importance of the various determinants of adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity changes over time under different social and economic assumptions. As such it provides a context for the implementation of specific adaptation measures. This could improve integrated assessment models and could be extended to other regions. However, there is a clear need for a better theoretical understanding of the adaptive capacity concept, and its relationship to the actual implementation of adaptation measures. This requires more empirical research and coordinated meta-analyses across regions and economic sectors, and the development of bottom-up modelling techniques that can incorporate human decision making.
主题	Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) ; Risk & ; Resilience (RISK)
关键词	Adaptation Adaptive capacity Fuzzy logic analysis Scenario development
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10374/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129709
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Acosta L,Klein RJT,Reidsma P,et al. A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe.. 2013.