| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/nature11787 |
| Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation. | |
| Rogelj J; McCollum DL; Reisinger A; Meinshausen M; Riahi K | |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 出处 | Nature 493 (7430): 79-83 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 degrees C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge his gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost -risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 degrees C, or other limit such as 3 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C, across a wide range of scenarios. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| 关键词 | Climate change Climate-change mitigation Environmental economics |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10534/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129838 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rogelj J,McCollum DL,Reisinger A,et al. Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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