| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.5194/acp-14-7323-2014 |
| Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale. | |
| Markakis K; Valari M; Colette A; Sanchez O; Perrussel O; Honore C; Vautard R; Klimont Z | |
| 发表日期 | 2014 |
| 出处 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14 (14): 7323-7340 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modeled in the control simulation. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG) ; Air Quality & ; Greenhouse Gases (AIR) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10885/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129874 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Markakis K,Valari M,Colette A,et al. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale.. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| acp-14-7323-2014.pdf（2671KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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