Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Article |
规范类型 | 其他 |
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1222463110 |
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. | |
Rosenzweig C; Elliott J; Deryng D; Ruane AC; Mueller C; Arneth A; Boote KJ; Folberth C | |
发表日期 | 2014 |
出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3268-3273 |
出版年 | 2014 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. |
主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
关键词 | Food security AgMIP ISI-MIP Climate impacts Agriculture |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10979/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129881 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rosenzweig C,Elliott J,Deryng D,et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.. 2014. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Assessing%20agricult(1812KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。