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来源类型Article
规范类型其他
DOI10.1073/pnas.1222463110
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.
Rosenzweig C; Elliott J; Deryng D; Ruane AC; Mueller C; Arneth A; Boote KJ; Folberth C
发表日期2014
出处Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3268-3273
出版年2014
语种英语
摘要Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
主题Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词Food security AgMIP ISI-MIP Climate impacts Agriculture
URLhttp://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10979/
来源智库International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129881
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Rosenzweig C,Elliott J,Deryng D,et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.. 2014.
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