| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1222465110 |
| Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. | |
| Nelson GC; Valin H; Sands RD; Havlik P; Ahammad H; Deryng D; Elliott J; Fujimori S | |
| 发表日期 | 2014 |
| 出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3274-3279 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| 关键词 | Climate change adaptation Model intercomparison Integrated assessment Agricultural productivity |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10976/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129890 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nelson GC,Valin H,Sands RD,et al. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks.. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Climate%20change%20e（725KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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