| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1222474110 |
| Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. | |
| Elliott J; Deryng D; Mueller C; Frieler K; Konzmann M; Gerten D; Glotter M; Flörke M | |
| 发表日期 | 2014 |
| 出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3239-3244 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Water (WAT) |
| 关键词 | Adaptation Agriculture Hydrology Uncertainty |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10980/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/129894 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Elliott J,Deryng D,Mueller C,et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Constraints%20and%20（1246KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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