全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.024
	Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything? - New evidence.
	Koch N; Fuss S; Grosjean G; Edenhofer O
发表日期	2014
出处	Energy Policy 73: 676-685
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	The price of EU allowances (EUAs) in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) fell from almost 30 Euros/tCO2 in mid-2008 to less than 5 Euros/tCO2 in mid-2013. The sharp and persistent price decline has sparked intense debates both in academia and among policy-makers about the decisive allowance price drivers. In this paper we examine whether and to what extent the EUA price drop can be justified by three commonly identified explanatory factors: the economic recession, renewable policies and the use of international credits. Capitalizing on marginal abatement cost theory and a broadly extended data set, we find that only variations in economic activity and the growth of wind and solar electricity production are robustly explaining EUA price dynamics. Contrary to simulation-based analyses, our results point to moderate interaction effects between the overlapping EU ETS and renewable policies. The bottom line, however, is that 90% of the variations of EUA price changes remains unexplained by the abatement-related fundamentals. Together, our findings do not support the widely-held view that negative demand shocks are the main cause of the weak carbon price signal. In view of the new evidence, we evaluate the EU ETS reform options which are currently discussed.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词	EU ETS Carbon price Renewables
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10876/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130011
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Koch N,Fuss S,Grosjean G,et al. Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything? - New evidence.. 2014.