全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s10584-013-0955-5
	Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios.
	Rose SK; Richels R; Smith SJ; Riahi K; Strefler J; van Vuuren DP
发表日期	2014
出处	Climatic Change 123 (3): 511-525
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25% of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5-10% by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution - with the later declining to as much as 50% and 80% below today's levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone - e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45.85% by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.
主题	Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10952/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130067
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rose SK,Richels R,Smith SJ,et al. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios.. 2014.