全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.051
	Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices.
	Jewell J; Cherp A; Riahi K
发表日期	2014
出处	Energy Policy 65: 743-760
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 .low-carbon. scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 degrees C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables.
主题	Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
关键词	Energy security Climate change Indicators
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11043/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130135
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jewell J,Cherp A,Riahi K. Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices.. 2014.