| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.013 |
| Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios. | |
| Schaeffer M; Gohar L; Kriegler E; Lowe J; Riahi K; van Vuuren DP | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (Part A): 257-268 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper explores the climate consequences of "delayed near-term action" and "staged accession" scenarios for limiting warming below 2 degrees-C. The stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels requires a large-scale transformation of the energy system. Depending on policy choices, there are alternative pathways to reach this objective. An "optimal" path, as emerging from energy-economic modeling, implies immediate action with stringent emission reductions, while the currently proposed international policies translate into reduction delays and higher near-term emissions. In our "delayed action" scenarios, low stabilization levels need thus to be reached from comparatively high 2030 emission levels. Negative consequences are higher economic cost as explored in accompanying papers and significantly higher mid-term warming, as indicated by a rate of warming 50% higher by the 2040s. By contrast, both mid- and long-term warming are significantly higher in another class of scenarios of staged "accession" that lets some regions embark on emission reductions, while others follow later, with conservation of carbon-price pathways comparable to the "optimal" scenarios. Not only is mid-term warming higher in "staged accession" cases, but the probability to exceed 2 degrees-C in the 21st century increases by a factor of 1.5. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| 关键词 | Climate modeling Copenhagen Pledges Climate policy AMPERE Integrated assessment Greenhouse gas emissions |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11544/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130149 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schaeffer M,Gohar L,Kriegler E,et al. Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 1-s2.0-S004016251300（867KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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