| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1002/2015WR017324 |
| Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit. | |
| Borgomeo E; Pflug G; Hall JW; Hochrainer-Stigler S | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Water Resources Research 51 (11): 8927-8948 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks and moisture delivery in many parts of the world which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modelling persistence of hydro-climatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessmnts based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multi-year droughts. In this paper we propose a vulnerability-based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula-based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way potential climate-induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought. |
| 主题 | Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) ; Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) ; Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) |
| 关键词 | hydrological drought copula hydrological persistence vulnerability-based drought vulnerability climate change robustness |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11314/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130177 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Borgomeo E,Pflug G,Hall JW,et al. Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Assessing%20water%20（1998KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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