| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.5194/esd-6-447-2015 |
| A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties. | |
| Frieler K; Levermann A; Elliott J; Khabarov N | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Earth System Dynamics 6 (2): 447-460 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). Onthe other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfillment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expanion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MI), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11421/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130189 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frieler K,Levermann A,Elliott J,et al. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| esd-6-447-2015.pdf（954KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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