| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021 |
| Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture. | |
| Weindl I; Lotze-Campen H; Popp A; Mueller C; Havlik P; Herrero M; Schmitz C; Rolinski S | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Environmental Research Letters 10 (9): 094021 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Livestock farming is the world's largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) |
| 关键词 | livestock climate impacts land use modeling adaptation costs production systems |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11374/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130216 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Weindl I,Lotze-Campen H,Popp A,et al. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Livestock%20in%20a%2（1535KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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