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来源类型Article
规范类型其他
DOI10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-14-00082.1
Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change: an example from the Italian Alps.
Malek Z; Boerboom L
发表日期2015
出处Mountain Research and Development 35 (2): 126-138
出版年2015
语种英语
摘要Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientsts in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeing future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism developmnt. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic infrmation systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generate spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.
主题Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) ; Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV)
关键词Land use change, scenarios, tourism, hydro-meteorological hazards, spatial simulation, stakeholders, Alps, Italy
URLhttp://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11429/
来源智库International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130229
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Malek Z,Boerboom L. Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change: an example from the Italian Alps.. 2015.
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