| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.4213/tvp4605 |
| A posteriori integration of probabilities. Elementary theory [in Russian: Апостериорная интеграция вероятностей. Элементарная теория]. | |
| Kryazhimskiy AV | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Elementary Theory, Probability Theory and Applications 60 (1): 45-79 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Increasingly, roles and responsibilities of the public sector in flood risk management are receiving attention in research and policy. Part of the debate suggests that allocating risk to the private sector increases efficiency as it promotes individual adaptation, thereby reducing the impact if a disaster occurs. In this paper, we analyse the macroeconomic effects as risk-averse investors take flood risk into account in their investment decisions. Our case study is the large Rotterdam area in the Netherlands. Using a spatial computable general equilibium model, we find that the decrease in investments in risky areas leads to a reduction in capital and production in the large Rotterdam area leading to a reduction in potential monetary disaster losses, but not to a reduction in population. The reallocation of risk reduces the long-term impacts from a flood on government tax revenues, but it also leads to welfare losses among households residing in risky regions. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) |
| 关键词 | flood risk investment under risk and uncertainty natural disasters spatial computable general equilibrium |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11312/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130268 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kryazhimskiy AV. A posteriori integration of probabilities. Elementary theory [in Russian: Апостериорная интеграция вероятностей. Элементарная теория].. 2015. |
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