全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.pce.2015.05.007
	Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin.
	Zhang X; Ermolieva T; Balkovič J; Mosnier A; Kraxner F; Liu J
发表日期	2015
出处	Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 89-90: 56-64
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	Downscaling methods assist decision makers in coping with the uncertainty regarding sustainable local area developments. In particular, they allow investigating local heterogeneities regarding water, food, energy, and environment consistently with global, national, and sub-national drivers and trends. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that integrates a partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM with a dynamic cross-entropy downscaling model to derive spatially explicit projections of land uses at 1-km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2050 relying on aggregate land demand projections. The fusion of the two modes is applied in a case study in Heihe River Basin to analyze the extent of potential cropland, grassland, and unused land transformations, which may exacerbate already extensive water consumption caused by rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture in the case study region. The outcomes are illustrated for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The kappa coefficients show that the downscaling results are in agreement with the land use and land over map of the Heihe River Basin, which indicates that the proposed approach produces realistic local land use pojections. The downscaling results show that under both SSP scenarios the cropland area is expected to increase from 2010 to 2050, while the grassland area is projected to increase sharply from 2010 to 2030 and then gradually come to a standstill after 2030. The results can be used as an input for planning sustainable land and water management in the study area, and the conceptual framework provides a general approach to creating high-resolution land-use datasets.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词	Cross-entropy downscaling Heihe River Basin land use shared socio-economic pathway scenarios
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11315/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130270
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang X,Ermolieva T,Balkovič J,et al. Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin.. 2015.