| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1111/risa.12382 |
| Structured coupling of probability loss distributions: assessing joint flood risk in multiple river basins. | |
| Timonina A; Hochrainer-Stigler S; Pflug G; Jongman B; Rojas R | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Risk Analysis 35 (11): 2102-2119 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Losses due to natural hazard events can be extraordinarily high and difficult to cope with. Therefore, there is considerable interest to estimate the potential impact of current and future extreme events at all scales in as much detail as possible. As hazards typically spread over wider areas, risk assessment must take into account interrelations between regions. Neglecting such interdependencies can lead to a severe underestimation of potential losses, especially for extreme events. This underestimation of extreme risk can lead to the failure of risk management strategies when they are most needed, namely, in times of unprecedented events. In this article, we suggest a methodology to incorporate such interdependencies in risk via the use of copulas. We demonstrate that by coupling losses, dependencies can be incorporated in risk analysis, avoiding the underestimation of risk. Based on maximum discharge data of river basins and stream networks, we present and discuss different ways to couple loss distributions of basins while explicitly incorporating tail dependencies. We distinguish between coupling methods that require river structure data for the analysis and those that do not. For the later approach we propose a 'minimax' algorithm to choose coupled basin pairs so that the underestimation of risk is avoided and the use of river structure data is not needed. The proposed methodology is especially useful for large-scale analysis and we motivate and apply our method using the case of Romania. The approach can be easily extended to other countries and natural hazards. |
| 主题 | Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) ; Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) |
| 关键词 | floods hierarchical and ordered copulas interdependencies between losses Romania vine copulas |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11324/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130275 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Timonina A,Hochrainer-Stigler S,Pflug G,et al. Structured coupling of probability loss distributions: assessing joint flood risk in multiple river basins.. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
