全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s10584-015-1485-0
	How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?
	Harmsen MJHM; van Vuuren DP; van Den Berg M; Hof AF; Hope C; Krey V; Lamarque J-F; Marcci A
发表日期	2015
出处	Climatic Change 133 (4): 565-582
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emission pathways and compared to analyses with complex earth system models (ESMs) in terms of concentration and radiative forcing levels. In our comparison, particular attention was given to the short-lived forcers' climate effects. In general, SCMs show forcing levels within the expert model ranges. However, the more simple SCMs seem to underestimate forcing differences between baseline and mitigation scenarios because of omission of ozone, black carbon and/or indirect methane forcing effects. Above all, results also show that among IAMs there is a signficant spread (0.74 W/m2 in 2100) in non-CO2 forcing projections for a 2.6 W/m2 mitigation scenario, mainly due to uncertainties in the indirect effects of aerosols. This has large implications for determining optimal mitigation strategies among IAMs with regard to required CO2 forcing targets and policy costs.
主题	Energy (ENE)
关键词	anthropogenic emissions climate effects climate forcings earth system model indirect effects integrated assessment models optimal mitigation radiative forcings
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11329/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130278
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harmsen MJHM,van Vuuren DP,van Den Berg M,et al. How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?. 2015.