全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Future forest cover change scenarios with implications for landslide risk: an example from Buzau Sucarpathians, Romania.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s00267-015-0577-y
	Future forest cover change scenarios with implications for landslide risk: an example from Buzau Sucarpathians, Romania.
	Malek Z; Boerboom L; Glade T
发表日期	2015
出处	Environmental Management 56 (5): 1228-1243
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 76 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.
主题	Risk & ; Resilience (RISK) ; Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11359/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130300
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Malek Z,Boerboom L,Glade T. Future forest cover change scenarios with implications for landslide risk: an example from Buzau Sucarpathians, Romania.. 2015.