全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Global food security & adaptation under crop yield volatility.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2015.03.019
	Global food security & adaptation under crop yield volatility.
	Fuss S; Havlik P; Szolgayova J; Schmid E; Reuter WH; Khabarov N; Obersteiner M; Ermolieva T
发表日期	2015
出处	Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98: 223-233
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	Climate change projections raise concerns about future food security and needs for adaptation. While variety of studies quantify and analyze climate change impacts at the level of crop yields, it has been recognized that changes in yield variability may have even more important effects on food security. In addition, large-scale analysis is typically based on different scenarios rather than providing aid to determine decisions that are robust across these scenarios. We develop a stochastic version of a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model integrating the agricultural, bio-energy and forestry sectors in order to examine food security under crop yield variability. The results indicate that food security requires overproduction to meet minimum food supply constraints. This does not only lead to higher prices, but also to larger cropped areas associated with an increase in GHG emissions and pressure on biodiversity, as more natural areas are converted to agriculture. Trade liberalization and enhanced irrigation are both found to be promising adaptation channels for food supply stabilization.
主题	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词	food security stochastic optimization under uncertainty adaptation international trade land use change climate change
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11385/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130319
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fuss S,Havlik P,Szolgayova J,et al. Global food security & adaptation under crop yield volatility.. 2015.