全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Towards harmonizing competing models: Russian forests' net primary production case study.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.003
	Towards harmonizing competing models: Russian forests' net primary production case study.
	Kryazhimskiy A; Rovenskaya E; Shvidenko A; Gusti M; Shchepashchenko D; Veshchinskaya V
发表日期	2015
出处	Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98: 245-254
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	This paper deals with the issue of reconciling gaps between stochastic estimates (probability distributions) provided by alternative statistically inaccurate observation/estimation techniques. We employ a posterior reconciliation (integration) method based on selection of mutually compatible test outcomes. Unlike other methods used in this context, the posterior integration method employed does not include assessment of the credibility of the original (prior) estimation sources, which is usually based on analysis of their past performance. The quality of the resulting posterior integrated distribution is evaluated in terms of change in the variance. The method is illustrated by integration of stochastic estimates of the annual net primary production (NPP) of forest ecosystems in seven bioclimatic zones of Russia. The estimates result from the use of two alternative NPP estimation techniques - the landscape-ecosystem approach based on empirical knowledge, and an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models. The estimates differ by up to 23%. Elimination of these gaps could help better quantify the terrestrial ecosystems' input to the global carbon cycle. The paper suggests a set of candidates for credible integrated NPP estimates for Russia, which harmonize those provided by two alternative sources.
主题	Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) ; Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词	net primary production of forest multi-model ensembles integration of models
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11387/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130321
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kryazhimskiy A,Rovenskaya E,Shvidenko A,et al. Towards harmonizing competing models: Russian forests' net primary production case study.. 2015.