全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Consequences of a universal European demographic transition on regional and global population distributions.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.003
	Consequences of a universal European demographic transition on regional and global population distributions.
	Skirbekk V; Stonawski M; Alfani G
发表日期	2015
出处	Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98: 271-289
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	This study provides simulations showing what global and regional population sizes would be if the rest of the world would have experienced similar population growth patterns as what was observed in Europe during the demographic transition. In 1820-2010, slowed growth was observed in Europe & North America where population increased by 4.6 times to a level of 1088 million. The population of Asia increased from 70 million to 4165 million. However, the biggest change from 1820 to 2010 was observed in regions that had relatively small populations in 1820 - Latin America (which increased by 38 times to 597 million) and Africa (which increased by 14 times to 1031 million). Our simulations show that if the French pattern of population growth had been followed (French population size increasing by 2.5 from 1820-2010), the global population would have merely doubled during the demographic transition (increasing to 2.02 times its original size) over the 1820-2010 period. All regions would have had a significantly lower population size: Europe & North Amrica would have increased to 474 million and Asia to 1453 million, while Africa would have grown to 150 million, which is just 15% of its current population. Projections suggest that population implications of following the in the coming decades would have been much lower. While UN median variant projections suggest that it would reach 914 million people by 2100.
主题	World Population (POP)
关键词	Population growth demographic transition Europe simulations demographic transition multiplier
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11388/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130322
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Skirbekk V,Stonawski M,Alfani G. Consequences of a universal European demographic transition on regional and global population distributions.. 2015.