| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.02.006 |
| Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics. | |
| Parkinson SC; Djilali N | |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 出处 | Applied Energy 147: 402-412 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Environmental performance (EP) uncertainties span a number of energy technology options, and pose planning risk when the energy system is subject to environmental constraints. This paper presents two approaches to integrating EP uncertainty into the long-term energy planning framework. The methodologies consider stochastic EP metrics across multiple energy technology options and produce a development strategy that hedges against the risk of exceeding environmental targets. Both methods are compared within a case study of emission-constrained electricity generation planning in British Columbia, Canada. The analysis provides important insight into model formulation and the interactions with concurrent environmental policy uncertainties. EP risk is found to be particularly important in situations where environmental constraints become increasingly stringent. Model results indicate allocation of a modest risk premium in these siuations can provide valuable hedging against EP risk. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| 关键词 | energy technology environmental impact mathematical programming risk |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11482/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130385 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parkinson SC,Djilali N. Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics.. 2015. |
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