| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/nclimate2868 |
| Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. | |
| Rogelj J; Schaefer M; Friedlingstein P; Gillett N; van Vuuren D; Riahi K; Allen M; Knutti R | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Nature Climate Change 6 (3): 245-252 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust number — the carbon budget for CO2-induced warming only — is also the least relevant for real-world policy. Including all greenhouse gases and using methods based on scenarios that avoid instead of exceed a given temperature limit results in lower carbon budgets. For a >66% chance of limiting warming below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, the most appropriate carbon budget estimate is 590–1,240 GtCO2 from 2015 onwards. Variations within this range depend on the probability of staying below 2 °C and on end-of-century non-CO2 warming. Current CO2 emissions are about 40 GtCO2 yr−1, and global CO2 emissions thus have to be reduced urgently to keep within a 2 °C-compatible budget. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| 关键词 | Climate change, Climate-change mitigation |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12019/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130528 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rogelj J,Schaefer M,Friedlingstein P,et al. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled.. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Differences%20betwee（1366KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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