| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.03.019 |
| Epidemiological, evolutionary, and economic determinants of eradication tails. | |
| Mazzucco R; Dieckmann U; Metz JAJ | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Journal of Theoretical Biology 405: 58-65 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Despite modern medical interventions, infectious diseases continue to generate huge socio-economic losses. The benefits of eradicating a disease are therefore high. While successful with smallpox and rinderpest, many other eradication attempts have failed. Eradications require huge and costly efforts, which can be sustained only if sufficient progress can be achieved. While initial successes are usually obtained more easily, progress often becomes harder as a disease becomes rare in the eradication endgame. A long eradication tail of slowly decreasing incidence levels can frustrate eradication efforts, as it becomes unclear whether progress toward eradication is still being made and how much more needs to be invested to push the targeted disease beyond its extinction threshold. Realistic disease dynamics are complicated by evolutionary responses to interventions and by interactions among different temporal and spatial scales. Models accounting for these complexities are required for understanding the shapes of eradication tails. In particular, such models allow predicting how hard or costly eradication will be, and may even inform in which manner progress has to be assessed during the eradication endgame. Here we outline a general procedure by analyzing the eradication tails of generic SIS diseases, taking into account two major ingredients of realistic complexity: a group-structured host population in which host contacts within groups are more likely than host contacts between groups, and virulence evolution subject to a trade-off between host infectivity within groups and host mobility among groups. Disentangling the epidemiological, evolutionary, and economic determinants of eradication tails, we show how tails of different shapes arise depending on salient model parameters and on how the extinction threshold is approached. We find that disease evolution generally extends the eradication tail and show how the cost structure of eradication measures plays a key role in shaping eradication tails. |
| 主题 | Evolution and Ecology (EEP) |
| 关键词 | Evolutionary disease control Virulence management Meta-population Endemicity Household |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12816/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130544 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mazzucco R,Dieckmann U,Metz JAJ. Epidemiological, evolutionary, and economic determinants of eradication tails.. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Epidemiological%2C%2（812KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
