| 来源类型 | Article
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| 规范类型 | 其他
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| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012
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| Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions. |
| Jones CD; Ciais P; Davis SJ; Friedlingstein P; Gasser T; Peters GP; Rogelj J; van Vuuren DP
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| 发表日期 | 2016
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| 出处 | Environmental Research Letters 11 (9): e095012
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
; Energy (ENE)
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| 关键词 | climate, carbon cycle, earth system, negative emissions, carbon dioxide removal, mitigation scenarios
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13829/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130548
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Jones CD,Ciais P,Davis SJ,et al. Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions.. 2016.
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文件名：
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erl095012_suppdata.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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