全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.5194/hessd-12-11651-2015
	Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change.
	Hoang L P; Lauri H; Kummu M; Koponen J; van Vliet M; Supit I; Leemans R; Kabat P
发表日期	2016
出处	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (7): 3027-3041
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the most recent CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high flow and low flow conditions). Similar to earlier CMIP3-based assessments, the hydrological cycle also intensifies in the CMIP5 climate change scenarios. The scenarios ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16%, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional chages. We further found that extremely high flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risk in the basin. The implications of climate change induced hydrological changes are critical and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.
主题	Water (WAT)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11922/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130617
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hoang L P,Lauri H,Kummu M,et al. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change.. 2016.