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来源类型Article
规范类型其他
DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.008
Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia.
Mason-D'Croz Daniel; Vervoort Joost; Islam Shahnila; Lord Steven; Helfgott Ariella; Havlik P; Peou Rathana
发表日期2016
出处Environmental Modelling & Software 83: 255-270
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.
主题Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
关键词Multi-stakeholder scenarios Multi-model ensembles Climate change Agriculture and food security Southeast Asia Driver analysis
URLhttp://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13303/
来源智库International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130619
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mason-D'Croz Daniel,Vervoort Joost,Islam Shahnila,et al. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia.. 2016.
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