| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.06.014 |
| Modeling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth. | |
| Grames J; Prskawetz A; Grass D; Viglione A; Blöschl G | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Ecological Economics 129: 193-209 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises like e.g. the Mekong delta. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent, more intense and stochastic high water level events. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | Flood Socio-hydrology Dynamic optimization Investment strategy |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13322/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130623 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grames J,Prskawetz A,Grass D,et al. Modeling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth.. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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