| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1038/nenergy.2016.77 |
| Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions. | |
| McCollum DL; Jewell J; Krey V; Bazilian M; Fay M; Riahi K | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Nature Energy 1 (7): e16077 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) |
| 关键词 | Climate-change mitigation, Decision making, Energy modelling, Fossil fuels |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13293/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130633 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McCollum DL,Jewell J,Krey V,et al. Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions.. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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