| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.190 |
| Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change. | |
| Shadkam S; Ludwig F; van Vliet M; Pastor A; Kabat P | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Science of the Total Environment 559: 317-325 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10⁹ m³ water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. |
| 主题 | Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) ; Water (WAT) ; Exploratory and Special projects (ESP) |
| 关键词 | Urmia Lake Hypersaline lake Climate change Irrigation Reservoirs Hydrological model |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12811/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130657 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shadkam S,Ludwig F,van Vliet M,et al. Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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