全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study.

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来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1007/s10584-016-1603-7
	How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study.
	Harmsen MJHM; van den Berg M; Krey V; Luderer G; Marcucci A; Strefler J; van Vuuren DP
发表日期	2016
出处	Climatic Change 136 (2): 203-216
出版年	2016
语种	英语
摘要	In climate policy, substitutions metrics are used to determine exchange ratios for different greenhoue gases as part of a multi-gas strategy. The suitability of the metric depends on the policy goals and considerations regarding its practical use. Here, we present a multi-model comparison study to look at the impact of different metrics on the mitigation strategies and global climate policy costs. The study looks into different Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). The study shows that for all the models, varying between GWPs - from differen IPCC reports, with different integration periods: 20 or 100 years - has a relatively small influence on policy costs (< 2.2 % spread across scenarios with a .8 W/m^2 target) and climate outcomes. Metrics with a constant low substitution value for methane (effectively reducing its abatement), in contrast, lead to higher-cost mitigation pathways (with an average cost increase of 32.8 % in a 2.8 W/m^2 scenario). If implemented efficiently, a time-varying GTP leads to a limited cost reduction compared to GWP. However, under imperfect foresight in combination with inertia of CH4 abatement options, or if implemented sub-optimally, time-varying GTP can result in higher costs than a 100-year GWP. At the same time, given a long-term radiative forcing target, a time-varying GTP result in slightly higher maximum global temperature change rates.
主题	Energy (ENE)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11836/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130745
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harmsen MJHM,van den Berg M,Krey V,et al. How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study.. 2016.