| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.015 |
| Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight. | |
| Ilmola L; Rovenskaya E | |
| 发表日期 | 2016 |
| 出处 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change 106: 85-100 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Emerging uncertainties present a challenge to decision making. On the basis of a review of existing scenario methods, we examine how ontological uncertainty, that is, the situation in which we do not know what we do not know, is included in scenario processes. We present three experimental foresight methods applicable for cases dominated by uncertainty; structural scenarios, shock scenarios and action portfolio and Agent-Based Modeling. The main finding of our experiment is that in order to address uncertainty, we have to relax the plausibility requirements and focus the analysis on futures that are perceived to be non-probable. In this way we are able to challenge existing perceptions and multiply the number of mental models of the futures. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) |
| 关键词 | Methodology Uncertainty Scenario planning Decision making |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12306/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/130750 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ilmola L,Rovenskaya E. Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight.. 2016. |
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